Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

552
FXUS64 KBRO 152347 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
647 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

- Wind Advisory in place for inland Cameron County until 4 PM today.

- Unseasonably warm conditions continue. Special Weather Statement
for heat index values between 105-110 degrees, occasionally up to
113, in place for portions of Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, and Kenedy
counties.

Upper level ridging will maintain hot, near-record breaking temps
through the end of the workweek. A localized enhanced pressure
gradient will aid a low level jet at 850mb, enhancing warm air
advection and supporting a warm nose aloft, curbing cooling
overnight. Gusty conditions today east of I-69C (gusts up to 42 mph
observed at BRO) will diminish this evening. Not as gusty tomorrow
as pressure gradient relaxes, though gusts around 25 kts will
persist through Friday.

A dryline will enter the area and stall over Zapata/Starr/Jim Hogg
counties this evening. South-southeasterly winds allow for
temperatures to remain elevated under upper level ridging. High
temperatures tomorrow a touch cooler than today - but before you
rejoice, south-southeasterly winds will transport some moisture back
into the atmosphere. This will raise heat index values tomorrow
higher than todays, with maximum apparent temperatures up to 115
possible. While this is higher than Heat Advisory criteria (111
degF), precluding an issuance this forecast package due to lacking
temporal and spatial coverage. Another Special Weather Statement is
likely for portions of Kenedy, Brooks, Starr, and Hidalgo counties
tomorrow if next forecast package precludes Heat Advisory. A
majority of the CWA tomorrow is under a Major Risk (level 3 of 4) of
heat-related illness.

Continue to be mindful of heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity
during peak heating, stay hydrated, and LOOK before you LOCK.
Children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles.

There is a High Risk of rip currents at local beaches through this
evening. Tomorrow, the risk of rip currents decreases to Moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The heat is on! Oppressively hot temperatures will plague the region
in the long term period as high pressure remains stationary over the
Gulf through early week. Surface winds out of the southeast will
advect moisture into the region and while no precipitation is
expected this will lead to higher humidity levels with max
apparent temperatures potentially reaching Heat Advisory criteria
on Friday and Saturday across central and northeastern portions of
the CWA. Apparent temperatures will still be quite warm (between
105 and 110) Sunday and Monday with increasing potential for
Heat Advisory criteria again for Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday
zonal flow aloft will cool temperatures slightly with max apparent
temperatures remaining below criteria for Heat Advisory. Heat
Risk will generally remain the in Major category (level 3 out of
4) though some pockets of Extreme Risk (level 4 out of 4) are
possible in portions of the northern Ranchlands through Tuesday.
Wednesday much of the area will fall back into a Moderate Heat
Risk (level 2 out of 4) and Minor Risk (level 1 out of 4) on
Thursday. On Wednesday and Thursday we could still see some
pockets of higher risk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Throughout this evening, south-southeasterly winds are expected
to continue to diminish to 10-15 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots
still possible overnight. VFR conditions are likely to lower to
MVFR, beginning as early as 04Z, first at KBRO then KHRL then
KMFE, but should rise back to VFR across all terminals around
sunrise or shortly after. VFR conditions and breezy south-
southeasterly winds are likely tomorrow, not as strong as today,
though gusts could range up to 25-30 knots.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Now through Friday night: A south-southeast fresh breeze tonight
will gradually diminish to moderate into Friday night. Moderate
seas will persist throughout the short term. Conditions will
slowly improve; Small Craft Advisory conditions should diminish by
tonight, leaving Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Over
Friday night, these headlines should drop off.

Saturday through Thursday...Slightly adverse marine
conditons are expected through much of the period with Exercise
Caution expected due to elevated winds. There is a potential for
periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions, mainly Monday into early
Tuesday due to higher winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  95  78  93 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               78  95  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 79  98  79  99 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  87  78  86 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  88  76  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...65-Irish